The North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG) released preliminary findings that estimate almost $2.3 billion in flood‑related damage across western North Texas over the next half‑century. The Integrated Transportation and Stormwater Infrastructure Study, begun in 2023, examines how coordinated growth and infrastructure design can curb future losses and keep communities safe.
Development driving runoff
According to the study, impervious surfaces such as roads, sidewalks and parking lots are expected to rise dramatically—from 6.4% of the land in 2020 to 35.2% by 2070. That surge will increase runoff, leaving less soil to absorb rainwater and raising flood risk for downstream neighborhoods.
“If we develop those areas to the same density as Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington and all the cities in between, does our downstream watershed have capacity? The easy answer is no,” said Susan Alvarez, NCTCOG director of environment and development.
Population growth adds pressure
The Dallas‑Fort Worth Metroplex, home to roughly 8.4 million people in 2025, could swell to over 12 million by 2050. More residents mean more homes, more vehicles and more demand for paved surfaces, all of which amplify flood potential.
Climate change compounds the threat
Extreme precipitation events are projected to become more frequent as additional heat is trapped in the atmosphere—a direct result of man‑made climate change. The study’s damage estimate includes both existing and future structures, personal property, vehicles and the cost of temporary housing for displaced residents.
Policy recommendations to protect families
To mitigate these risks, the study proposes several local policy actions:
- Setbacks that keep new construction out of floodplains.
- Require developers to assess how projects affect downstream neighbors.
- Reduce the amount of paved surface in new developments.
In addition, the report identifies more than 200 potential projects—such as larger culverts, bridge upgrades, integrated roadway drainage, rain gardens and flood‑warning systems—to strengthen the region’s resilience. Nine of these projects are already slated for state‑funding consideration and are ready for immediate design and construction.
Next steps
The final study will expand its analysis to include Denton and Wise counties, with a complete report expected by the end of the year. Local officials, developers and residents are encouraged to review the findings and participate in upcoming planning meetings.
By addressing growth patterns now, the region can avoid passing ever‑greater costs onto families and preserve the safety of downstream communities for generations to come.
Original reporting: Fort Worth Report — read the source article.
