By OBBM Network Editorial Staff

Derived from an episode of Epic Real Estate.

President Trump’s promise to slash mortgage rates to 3% and halve the cost of a new home sounded like a bold reset for America’s housing market. Two years on, the numbers paint a far more nuanced picture.

What the Administration Promised

In September 2024, speaking to the Economic Club of New York, President Trump outlined three specific goals: mortgage rates would drop to 3% or lower, regulations would be eliminated to cut new‑home costs by half, and federal land would be opened for development. He also stated, “I don’t want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up for people that own their homes.” These statements set a clear benchmark for the administration’s housing agenda.

At the start of his term, the 30‑year mortgage rate was 6.96% according to Freddie Mac. By the week of the latest data, it had risen to 7.32%, well above the promised 3% and even higher than the rate on day one.

The Five Official Documents

Over the first 20 months, the Trump administration released five key pieces of paperwork: a January 20, 2025 memo titled “Delivering Emergency Price Relief,” a State of the Union claim in February 2026 about a $5,000 drop in typical mortgage costs, two executive orders on March 13, 2026 addressing mortgage‑rule easing and construction‑related regulations, and a final executive order in late October 2026 that refined a pilot program for faster mortgage‑insurance drops.

The memo simply instructed agencies to lower housing costs and expand supply, without concrete deadlines or metrics. The State of the Union claim referenced a temporary dip to 6.01% in mortgage rates, noting that a full point reduction would save $2,500‑$3,000 annually—far short of the $5,000 touted. The March orders set a 120‑day reporting deadline but offered no specific numbers, except a brief mention of a 50‑year mortgage proposal that was shelved within 60 days.

Market Outcomes: Rates, Starts, and Inventories

National housing data shows a mixed outcome. Median home prices rose from $396,900 at inauguration to $417,500 in September 2025, a roughly 5% gain that benefits existing owners. Meanwhile, mortgage rates climbed, housing starts fell from about 1.37 million to 1.22 million units annually, and home sales slipped from 4.08 million to 3.99 million. The most striking shift is the increase in homes for sale, now around 1.16 million—a sign that fewer buyers can afford purchases rather than a surge in new construction.

These trends underscore that the administration’s leverage over mortgage rates is limited; rates track the 10‑year Treasury, which hit 5.3% in the fall, the highest level since 2002. External factors such as oil price spikes from the Iran conflict, inflation worries, and a Federal Reserve rate hike in September 2025 also played decisive roles.

Concrete Legislative Wins

The only promise that translated into law was the ban on large Wall Street investors owning more than 350 single‑family homes. Congress passed the measure overwhelmingly—85‑5 in the Senate and 358‑32 in the House—effective January 7, 2027. Realtor.com estimates these investors account for about 1% of purchases, making the impact modest but symbolically significant.

Another tangible step came from the March 2026 executive order directing HUD to provide every state and city with a playbook that includes permit‑deadline standards and fee caps. While the federal government cannot rewrite local zoning codes, the program incentivizes municipalities to loosen regulations by tying federal grant money to compliance. As Matt Theriault notes, “Making houses more affordable is now your mayor’s problem. The president did his part; now it’s time for them to do theirs.”

Why Local Action Matters More Than Federal Declarations

Housing supply, not demand, is the true lever for price reduction. The United States now has roughly 38 million more residents than in 2008, yet new‑home construction has lagged, creating a shortfall of 4‑5 million homes. Moreover, nearly 40% of homeowners own their homes outright, and about half of existing mortgages are under 4% interest, reducing the incentive for owners to sell.

Given this supply‑demand imbalance, federal policies that merely stimulate demand—such as lower rates or tax incentives—can inadvertently push prices higher. The administration’s most effective tool, therefore, is to empower local governments to streamline permitting, reduce fees, and allocate federal funds for those reforms.

In sum, President Trump’s housing agenda delivered a mixed scorecard: a missed mortgage‑rate target, modest home‑price appreciation for owners, a handful of legislative actions, and a shift of responsibility to city halls across the nation. For homeowners and prospective buyers alike, the real battle now lies in local zoning debates and the willingness of municipalities to claim the federal incentives on the table.

The full episode of Epic Real Estate is available on OBBM Network TV.